- Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election but the Lib Dems will be a close second.
- All 3 main party leaders (Cameron, Clegg and Miliband_E) will still be in post by the end of the year.
- The AV referendum will be (narrowly) won.
- Sarah Palin will do something that will effectively end her chances of being a serious candidate for the 2012 US presidential election.
- A Lib Dem MP will resign the party whip to either sit as an independent or join another party.
- England will win the Rugby World Cup.
- For the third year running I predict that Eddie Mair will become the new host of BBC Question Time.
- Liam Fox will no longer be a cabinet minister by the end of the year.
- Including Old and Sad there will be 3 by-elections during the year.
- A petition signed by more than 100,000 people will trigger a debate in parliament about legalising cannabis.
Friday, 31 December 2010
Thursday, 30 December 2010
Here are my predictions from this time last year about 2010 and how I did:
Wednesday, 29 December 2010
So nearly half of Labour MPs are against a change in the voting system for the House of Commons to the Alternative Vote. When this is combined with most Tory MPs it is looking like well over half and perhaps more than two thirds of MPs want to stick with the status quo rather than move to a preferential system.
I'm not sure that this is particularly interesting or important news. What it essentially boils down to is that the majority of people whose jobs depend (to a greater or lesser extent) on the current electoral system want to keep that electoral system. I'd be very surprised if the majority of MPs did back the change. At the same time, that is precisely the reason why their views should hold little sway and it should be the debate in the country that informs the referendum decision. It is the same reason why I am glad that Nick Clegg and other senior Lib Dem MPs are taking a back-seat in the Yes to AV campaign as the opposite charge can be levelled against them too.
By the way, I am sure that many (perhaps most) of the MPs who are against change hold their views as a matter of principle. The problem is that there is such a fundamental conflict of interest that it is impossible to disentangle it. It is the same sort of situation that MPs who lobby for a particular industry and are then discovered to have business interests in that same industry find themselves compromised by. They may be completely innocent but they have all now (largely) realised that they are better off avoiding the conflict of interest in the first place.
Instead of focusing on who backs what we should be looking at the arguments for and against. And I am afraid that "Caroline Flint is against it" is not an argument.
I have been largely silent on this blog since mid-August when I announced that I would no longer be blogging. There was one exception earlier this month when I blogged about tuition fees (I felt like I *had* to say something!) and I have done a couple of guest posts for other blogs too in that period. Apart from that though it has been a nice break for me to be able to watch the news and follow politics without always thinking about how I am going to blog the latest story. After almost two years of pretty intense blogging (several times a day at its height) I must admit it was a relief not to feel compelled to do this.
Tuesday, 7 December 2010
Well what a bloody mess this is! I stop blogging for a few months and in my absence the party almost tears itself apart over tuition fees.